The Best Women Olympians Will Be Cis Women

While those with a transphobic obsession will bleat on about the supposed threat of trans women in women’s sports, the games will once again show how amazing women athletes are.

There was a lot of significant women’s Olympic news over the weekend. The US track and field qualifier produced a host of compelling storylines in its own right. From Alison Felix qualifying for her fifth straight games to the dominating 100m victory of Sha’Carri Richardson, 2021 is set to be another banner Olympic year for women.

Though pandemic politics will ultimately further the money-grubbing reputation of the International Olympic Committee, the games have frequently been a place for female excellence.

Some anti-trans activists think the days of cis dominance of women’s sports will soon be over, predicting that a wave of trans women athletes will usurp cis women at the highest level of sport.

Another bit of Olympic news over the weekend seemingly furthered their claims, as New Zealand weightlifter Laurel Hubbard was chosen and is now set to become the first openly trans Olympian in history. Trans women have been allowed to compete as women in some form since 2002, and yet none have openly competed in the games before. Hubbard will break that glass ceiling.

The announcement of her selection has set off a predictable wave of misogyny and transphobia, as men and some gender critical feminists have deemed her the obvious favorite in her events due to her “male biology” — despite the fact that she’s only ranked #10 in the world in her sport. It would actually be an upset for Hubbard to medal, given her light international resume and relative inability to win outside of the Oceania region.

But while the trans-obsessed will focus solely on Hubbard and attempt to turn her appearance into a political talking point, we’re also going to witness the other 99.9% of women athletes, nearly all cis women, put on amazing shows of athletic performance.

The GOAT Simone Biles will dazzle us in gymnastics, Alison Felix will show us that moms can be athletic superstars too, and Katie Ledecky will dominate the pool — far exceeding whatever performance we see from Hubbard in the weight room.

There’s been much discussion of trans women athletes of late, with several states going so far as to ban them from competing with other women in school sports. Concern over the “end of women’s sports” because of trans athletes spans back 50 years to when Renee Richards won the right to play professional women’s tennis, and yet no such takeover has yet occurred.

It’s easy to get lost in the morass of scientific claims on either side of this, but the stone cold reality is that trans athletes have been — mostly — mediocre at best. There has never been an elite level trans athlete in any sport until Hubbard. It’s fair to ask why that’s the case.

Most trans people are economically disadvantaged as young adults, a harsh but basic obstacle to athletic greatness. But I think there’s another reason why trans women haven’t taken over women’s sports.

Stay with me now…

Maybe, just maybe, cis women are great athletes in their own right. We’ll see that on display once again in Tokyo this year.